1
Monterrey
4yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 75
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
94%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | Mountaineer | Ricardo Barrios | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mountaineer | Ricardo Barrios | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Charles Town | Jose Diaz | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Charles Town | Jose Diaz | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Charles Town | Sunday Jr Diaz | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/09/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 20/09/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 29/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/10/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |