6
Scat
3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 6 · OR 63
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Charles Town | Jose Diaz | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | Taylor Kingsley | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Colonial Downs | Malcolm Franklin | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 18/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/10/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 16/10/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |