3
Bali Hai
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 58
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Charles Town | Rayan Wilson | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-10-03 | Charles Town | Alexis Jr Rios Conde | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | Charles Town | Alexis Jr Rios Conde | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Charles Town | Alexis Jr Rios Conde | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | Alexis Jr Rios Conde | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Charles Town | Justin Lewis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 37/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength43%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 28/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 03/10/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 22/10/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |