Ran The Red
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 71
Charles Town · Race 2 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Charles Town | Nomar Bueno Arroyo | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | Horacio Karamanos | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Charles Town | Victor Rodriguez | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |