1
Zelzara
3yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 15
Deauville · Prix Du Pays De Bray Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#10
Rank
Odds
11/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Compiegne | H Journiac | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | H Journiac | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Deauville | H Journiac | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | H Journiac | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | H Journiac | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | A Madamet | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1680% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.66 |
| 01/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 53% | +0.16 |
| 28/05/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |