5

Moondance

2yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4

Deauville · Prix Zeddaan Listed Stakes · 6f 211y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Le Mans 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f102y Gd 12421/04C53 @ Saint-Cloud 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13029/0533 @ Chantilly 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12719/0631 @ Mont De Marsan 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12426/0712 @ Deauville 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f101y Sft 12213/0821 @ Chantilly 19/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f212y GS 122 · HIGHER CLASS19/091projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19ChantillyA Pouchin14th4th+0
2026-08-13DeauvilleC Soumillon22nd3rd−1
2026-07-26Mont De MarsanG Guedj-gay12nd2nd0
2026-06-19ChantillyF Valle Skar35th8th−2
2026-05-29Saint-CloudF Valle Skar32nd5th−2
2026-04-21Le MansF Valle Skar?1st5th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0429/0519/0626/0713/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 33/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength72%

Delivery trend -5.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
29/05/20262nd8/158%86%+0.28
19/06/20265th9/488%56%-0.33
26/07/20262nd28/10%88%+0.88
13/08/20262nd5/493%83%-0.10
19/09/20264th13/266%50%-0.16