1
Charlesquint
9yo Gelding · 9-10 · Draw 7 · OR 97
Deauville · Prix Lodd By Chloe Stakes · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
75%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Lyon La Soie | L Gallo | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Deauville | R Mangione | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-29 | Chantilly | L Gallo | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | H Boutin | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | A Lecordier | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Deauville | L Gallo | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 10-11 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 19/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 79% | +0.10 |
| 06/08/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 54% | -0.12 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 27/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 29/09/2026 | 14th | 11/1 | 42% | 7% | -0.35 |
| 05/10/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 11/10/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |