6
Lucero
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 10
Deauville · Prix Lodd By Chloe Stakes · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
35/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | H Boutin | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | G Danloux | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | G Danloux | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Vichy | H Boutin | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | H Boutin | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Compiegne | J Moutard | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 10-11 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/04/2026 | 13th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 13/06/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 25/08/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 17/09/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 43% | -0.12 |