10
Septimus
5yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 6
Deauville · Prix Lodd By Chloe Stakes · 1m 1f 97y
#8
Rank
Odds
17/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength36%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Saint-Cloud | C Belmont | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-23 | Chantilly | C Belmont | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | A Pouchin | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | A Pouchin | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Nantes | D Breux | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Fontainebleau | A Pouchin | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 27/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 10/03/2026 | 16th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 93% | +0.30 |
| 11/05/2026 | 14th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 02/06/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 14/06/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 23/09/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 14/10/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 87% | +0.39 |