11
Carnival Of Light
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 84
Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲3
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -3.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Musselburgh | S H James | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Leopardstown | C Soumillon | BHA88 | 17th | 27th | −8 |
| 2026-08-20 | York | Oliver Stammers | 2 | 16th | 17th | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | Oliver Stammers | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-17 | Wolverhampton | Oliver Stammers | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-29 | Pontefract | Oliver Stammers | 2 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 77/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 29/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/08/2026 | 16th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/09/2026 | 17th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/10/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |