10
Charibelle
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 9
Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | T Bachelot | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | T Bachelot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | T Bachelot | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Chantilly | T Bachelot | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | T Bachelot | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Chantilly | T Bachelot | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 7-13 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 91% | +0.49 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 55% | -0.14 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |