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4

Ferrari Fever

5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 6 · OR 98

Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength19%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Chantilly 13/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 7f209y Std 123 · beat its mark13/02/2026 · OR 98 par13/022OR 98C5 @ Chantilly 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 98 · 1m208y Std 125 · below its mark16/03/2026 · OR 98 par2 @ Toulouse 19/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12319/0422 @ ParisLongchamp 30/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 16 · OR - · 6f211y GS 1303 @ Lyon-Parilly 23/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 12823/0533 @ Vichy 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 1233 @ Chantilly 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 98 · 1m99y Std 123 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 98 par4/093OR 98C5 @ Chantilly 14/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 98 · 7f209y Std 123 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 98 par1 @ Chantilly 10/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 98 · 6f211y Std 123 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 98 par10/101OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10ChantillyT Trullier11st1st−0
2026-09-14ChantillyT Trullier?1st5th−4
2026-09-04ChantillyThomas Trullier31st4th−2
2026-08-14VichyThomas Trullier32nd5th−2
2026-05-23Lyon-ParillyThomas Trullier39th12th−2
2026-04-30ParisLongchampThomas Trullier214th15th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0230/044/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/02/20262nd7/282%80%-0.02
16/03/20264th9/153%75%+0.22
19/04/20265th13/266%43%-0.23
30/04/202614th20/10%13%+0.13
23/05/20269th11/142%11%-0.31
14/08/20262nd5/174%75%+0.01
04/09/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
14/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
10/10/20261st11/486%100%+0.14