No Lunch
5yo Colt · 9-6 · Draw 4 · OR 112
Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Deauville | M Guyon | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | M Guyon | 1 | 8th | 8th | +0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | M Guyon | 1 | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | M Guyon | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | M Guyon | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cagnes-sur-Mer | E Corallo | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 13% | -0.56 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 08/03/2026 | 1st | 1/5 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |