5
Palmar Bay
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 13 · OR 99
Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Chester | Harry Vigors | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | S D Bowen | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Chester | H Crouch | 2 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | Rossa Ryan | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Wolverhampton | Rossa Ryan | 1 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Deauville | I Mendizabal | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 23/08/2025 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 27% | -0.36 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 03/12/2025 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 07/03/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 57% | -0.06 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 30/05/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 10% | -0.64 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |