8
Rencontre Sportive
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 5
Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | Jacky Nicoleau | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | Jacky Nicoleau | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Chantilly | Jacky Nicoleau | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Chantilly | Jacky Nicoleau | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-11-28 | Deauville | Jacky Nicoleau | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-10-28 | Chantilly | Jacky Nicoleau | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 70/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 28/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |