13
Sonatine
3yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 10
Deauville · Prix Irish River Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#12
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Deauville | M Guyon | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | A Pouchin | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | M Guyon | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | M Guyon | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Saint-Cloud | M Guyon | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Deauville | M Guyon | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 49/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%
Delivery trend +12.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 53% | -0.15 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 54% | +0.28 |
| 08/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |