12
El Vegas
3yo Colt · 8-12 · Draw 10
Deauville · Prix Du Pays De Caux Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#12
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | ParisLongchamp | C Demuro | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-27 | Amiens | R Mangione | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Vittel | D Santiago | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | S Pasquier | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | H Lebouc | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | H Lebouc | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength23%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 27/05/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 07/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 27/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 85% | +0.14 |
| 13/10/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |