4
Stratovulcano
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 5
Deauville · Prix Du Pays De Caux Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
96%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Deauville | J Moutard | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | P Le Digabel | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | M Guyon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | ParisLongchamp | C Demuro | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | C Demuro | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | C Demuro | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 6-14 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 21/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 02/07/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 06/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 05/10/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |