1
Tocoa
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 7
Deauville · Prix Du Pays De Caux Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Chantilly | Pierre-Charles Boudot | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Compiegne | Pierre-Charles Boudot | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | Pierre-Charles Boudot | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | A Madamet | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | A Madamet | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | A Madamet | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 41/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 50/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.00 |
| 22/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 15/10/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |