8
Nazgul Blou
3yo Colt · 9-3 · Draw 14
Deauville · Prix Du Plateau De La Madrie Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
57%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Chantilly | S Pasquier | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | S Pasquier | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | S Pasquier | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Chantilly | Michael Cadeddu | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Deauville | Luca Carboni | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Chantilly | C Carboni | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-14 · tight 24/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/11/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 27/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 31/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 92% | +0.65 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/09/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 15/10/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 53% | -0.10 |