5
Koelle Alaaf
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 9
Deauville · Prix Du Bray Normand Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Chantilly | D Santiago | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-11 | Le Mans | D Santiago | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | P Cheyer | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Saint-Malo | P Cheyer | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Lyon La Soie | B Flandrin | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 45% | +0.40 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 15/10/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 77% | +0.16 |