3
Maria Joana
3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 14
Deauville · Prix Du Bray Normand Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Compiegne | M Guyon | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | M Guyon | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | M Guyon | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Chantilly | T Piccone | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | La Teste De Buch | J Guillochon | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Craon | J Guillochon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 89/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -15.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 07/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 19/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 46% | +0.20 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 42% | -0.29 |
| 27/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 62% | +0.01 |
| 24/09/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 31% | -0.53 |