2
Tomoe Gozen
3yo Filly · 9-5 · Draw 2
Deauville · Prix Du Bray Normand Handicap · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
17/5
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Chantilly | H Boutin | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-24 | Compiegne | R Mangione | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-13 | ParisLongchamp | R Mangione | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Deauville | R Mangione | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Deauville | R Mangione | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Clairefontaine | R Mangione | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength99%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 01/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 13/09/2026 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 24/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.77 |
| 15/10/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 92% | +0.11 |