1
Admiral Will Brown
3yo Gelding · 10-12
Down Royal · Lisburn And Castlereagh City Council 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m 190y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA64
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | Wesley Joyce | BHA78 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | Wesley Joyce | BHA78 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | Wesley Joyce | BHA64 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | Ben Coen | BHA65 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Curragh | Ben Coen | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Punchestown | Ben Coen | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 8th | 125/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 16/09/2025 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 27/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 73% | +0.12 |