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3yo Gelding · 10-12

Down Royal · Lisburn And Castlereagh City Council 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m 190y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

120,000 gns purchase after finishing runner-up on second of 2 Flat starts in France for Francis-Henri Graffard. 14/1, shaped as if needing run when seventh of 9 in juvenile at Punchestown (2m, good to soft) on hurdle debut 18 days ago. Has been gelded and he's open to progress.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Compiegne 25/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 12825/05C5C5 @ Lyon-Parilly 21/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m3f204y GS 12821/06C5C0 @ Punchestown 13/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 2m46y Gd 15213/10C?projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-13PunchestownJack Kennedy?7th7th0
2026-06-21Lyon-ParillyM Barzalona?2nd2nd0
2026-05-25CompiegneM Velon?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0521/0613/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-4 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength64%

Delivery trend +16.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/05/20265th3/184%50%-0.34
21/06/20262nd4/596%83%-0.12
13/10/20267th14/126%25%-0.01