7
Moon Aura
3yo Filly · 10-5
Down Royal · Lisburn And Castlereagh City Council 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m 190y
#6
Rank
Odds
100/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | Kevin Sexton | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-30 | Roscommon | Keithen Kennedy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gowran Park | Keithen Kennedy | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | Shane Foley | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Limerick | Keithen Kennedy | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | Shane Foley | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 42/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength40%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |