5
Servare
3yo Gelding · 10-12
Down Royal · Lisburn And Castlereagh City Council 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m 190y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 8.9)
Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Curragh | Adam Browne-Souza | BHA67 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Limerick | Sam Coen | BHA70 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | Andrew Slattery | BHA71 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Cork | Andrew Slattery | BHA71 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Navan | Andrew Slattery | BHA59 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Naas | Andrew Slattery | BHA60 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2025 | 14th | 150/1 | 0% | 28% | +0.28 |
| 30/08/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/09/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 10/06/2026 | 15th | 10/1 | 47% | 7% | -0.41 |
| 20/10/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |