8
Swift Charm
3yo Filly · 10-5
Down Royal · Lisburn And Castlereagh City Council 3-Y-O Hurdle · 2m 190y
#5
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 8.8)
Highest class: BHA51
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | P J O'Hanlon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | Gavin Ryan | BHA51 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Down Royal | Gavin Ryan | BHA51 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | Gavin Ryan | BHA51 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | Gavin Ryan | BHA51 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Leopardstown | Wayne Lordan | BHA54 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 12th | 200/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/12/2025 | 7th | 300/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 30/01/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 12/04/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 26% | +0.26 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 05/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 04/07/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |