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13

Abando

4yo Gelding · 11-11

Down Royal · Lough Construction Maiden Hurdle · 2m 190y

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Once-useful performer on the Flat in Germany. Well below that level more recently, including 2 starts in this sphere. Still looked in need of the experience when 14¾ lengths fourth at Fairyhouse latest. Remains capable of better, especially when handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼2
Strength99%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +2.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m4f14y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 100 par27/095OR 1005 @ Chelmsford City 09/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 97 · 1m2f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/10/2025 · OR 97 par3 @ Kempton 19/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/01/2026 · OR 90 par19/013OR 903 @ Lingfield 12/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 80 · 1m2f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/02/2026 · OR 80 par5 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 72 · 1m2f50y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par3/065OR 725 @ Bath 05/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 72 · 1m6f Gd 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Ffos Las 23/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 70 · 1m2f Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 70 par23/065OR 70C8 @ Roscommon 28/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m7f135y Goo 161C8 @ Fairyhouse 05/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 1575/10C8projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05FairyhouseJames Smith?4th4th0
2026-09-28RoscommonJames Smith?3rd3rd0
2026-06-23Ffos LasWilliam Carver57th3rd+3
2026-06-05BathWilliam Carver58th4th+3
2026-06-03NottinghamSaffie Osborne54th0th+3
2026-02-12LingfieldHollie Doyle33rd-3th+5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0912/0223/065/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20255th6/492%50%-0.42
09/10/20254th10/147%40%-0.07
19/01/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
12/02/20263rd15/261%33%-0.27
03/06/20264th33/10%67%+0.67
05/06/20268th4/179%0%-0.79
23/06/20267th25/10%14%+0.14
28/09/20263rd33/10%83%+0.83
05/10/20264th11/142%70%+0.28