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15

Calamint

6yo Mare · 11-5

Down Royal · Lough Construction Maiden Hurdle · 2m 190y

#8

Rank

Odds

100/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair Flat winner (isn't bred for jumping) who went backwards from hurdling bow at Listowel last time. Another bound for handicaps.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼2
Strength94%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: BHA50
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA57 @ Roscommon 13/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 57 · 1m4f46y Sft 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/10/2025 · OR 57 par13/1057OR 57C7 @ Dundalk 29/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 56 · 1m Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 56 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 53 par14/1153OR 53BHA50 @ Navan 30/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 50 · 1m2f Hvy 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 50 parBHA51 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 51 · 1m3f190y Yie 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 51 par25/0451OR 51BHA51 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 51 · 1m1f133y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 51 parC8 @ Kilbeggan 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m Gd 1598/08C8BHA50 @ Navan 05/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 21 · OR 50 · 1m2f10y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 50 parC8 @ Listowel 24/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 17 · OR - · 2m Goo 16124/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24ListowelKevin Healy?9th9th0
2026-09-05NavanDonagh O'ConnorBHA5011th7th+3
2026-08-08KilbegganJoshua Halford?5th5th0
2026-05-08BallinrobeYudish GeerdharryBHA513rd0th+3
2026-04-25LimerickYudish GeerdharryBHA518th5th+3
2026-03-30NavanYudish GeerdharryBHA502nd-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1030/038/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 7-17 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/10/20254th28/10%80%+0.80
29/10/20257th20/10%54%+0.54
14/11/20256th11/271%58%-0.13
30/03/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
25/04/20268th11/486%53%-0.32
08/05/20263rd15/261%85%+0.24
08/08/20265th25/10%60%+0.60
05/09/202611th10/147%50%+0.03
24/09/20269th150/10%50%+0.50