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14

Je Suis Celebre

4yo Gelding · 11-11

Down Royal · Lough Construction Maiden Hurdle · 2m 190y

#12

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Hasn't gone on from his hurdling debut (in contention for a place when falling). Still has stamina to prove in this sphere and needs this run for a mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 02/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 7f36y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS2/0144 @ Kempton 07/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 7f Sta 138 · HIGHER CLASSC8 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f Std 13520/02C8C8 @ Limerick 25/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 73 · 1m50y Yie 135 · below its mark25/04/2026 · OR 73 parBHA71 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 71 · 1m1f210y Gd 141 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 71 par28/0571OR 71C8 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 67 · 7f195y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 67 parC8 @ Listowel 26/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 2m Goo 16126/09C8C8 @ Fairyhouse 05/10/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 1575/10C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-05FairyhouseDaniel King?7th7th0
2026-09-26ListowelDaniel King?5th5th0
2026-08-22KillarneyGary Noonan?0
2026-07-03BellewstownJamie Powell?8th7th+1
2026-05-28FairyhouseJack KearneyBHA7111th10th+1
2026-04-25LimerickJack Kearney?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0125/0426/095/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 7-17 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/01/20264th66/10%50%+0.50
07/01/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
20/02/20265th11/893%56%-0.37
25/04/20268th16/116%50%+0.34
28/05/202611th20/10%33%+0.33
03/07/20268th16/116%50%+0.34
26/09/20265th17/255%64%+0.08
05/10/20267th80/10%40%+0.40