13
Arch Empire
6yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 117
Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C9.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | Danny Gilligan | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | Mr H C Swan | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | Ricky Doyle | BHA120 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Wexford | Josh Williamson | BHA123 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Punchestown | Jordan Gainford | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | Jack Kennedy | BHA126 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 13-18 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 01/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 27% | -0.25 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 14/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 28/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |