12
Hopeful Hero
5yo Gelding · 10-12 · OR 118
Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Chepstow | J J Burke | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-10-01 | Clonmel | Donagh Meyler | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | Alan O'Sullivan | BHA113 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | Donagh Meyler | BHA110 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | Michael Kenneally | BHA109 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | Alan O'Sullivan | BHA109 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 2-14 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 87% | +0.13 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 27/07/2026 | 15th | 9/2 | 76% | 26% | -0.50 |
| 28/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 85% | +0.06 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 01/10/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 09/10/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |