5
Hopes Are High
4yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 125
Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y
#13
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Listowel | Philip Byrnes | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | Philip Byrnes | BHA124 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Galway | Mr J C Barry | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Punchestown | Philip Byrnes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Listowel | Philip Byrnes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Down Royal | Philip Byrnes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1859% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 56/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 81% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2025 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 11/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 29/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 24/09/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 58% | +0.03 |