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2

Lieber Nicc

7yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 129

Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y

#1

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

45%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a significant step forward to make a winning return in good style in this corresponding event last year. Not seen since but plainly very capable fresh and has to be taken seriously in his bid to repeat the feat from a 10 lb higher mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fairyhouse 27/01/2024 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m Sft 16827/01C?C8 @ Clonmel 16/05/2024 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 158C8 @ Wexford 25/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 2m150y Goo 15825/07C8C8 @ Killarney 06/10/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 116 · 2m1f Goo 159 · below its mark06/10/2024 · OR 116 parBHA119 @ Down Royal 02/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 119 · 2m190y Goo 153 · below its mark02/11/2024 · OR 119 par2/11119OR 119BHA119 @ Leopardstown 27/12/2024 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 119 · 2m Yie 144 · below its mark27/12/2024 · OR 119 parC8 @ Listowel 22/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f15y Hvy 14122/09C8C8 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 2m66y Goo 142BHA119 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 119 · 2m190y Yie 152 · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 119 par1/11119OR 119projClass-projected finish: 4th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-01Down RoyalDarragh O'KeeffeBHA1191st1st0
2025-10-09ThurlesBilly Lee?5th5th0
2025-09-22ListowelBilly Lee?5th5th0
2024-12-27LeopardstownRachael BlackmoreBHA1193rd3rd0
2024-11-02Down RoyalDarragh O'KeeffeBHA1195th5th0
2024-10-06KillarneyMike O'Connor?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/016/1022/091/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 77/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength46%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/01/20243rd11/486%78%-0.08
16/05/20243rd5/493%88%-0.06
25/07/20241st9/488%100%+0.12
06/10/20242nd11/486%75%-0.11
02/11/20245th11/271%76%+0.05
27/12/20243rd11/271%89%+0.18
22/09/20255th5/174%64%-0.10
09/10/20255th13/266%60%-0.06
01/11/20251st7/282%100%+0.18