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17

Lygon Lad

6yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 109

Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y

#14

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed his return to form when opening his account in a Downpatrick novice (2¼m) in September, finding plenty for pressure. Looked a shade unlucky not to follow up back in handicap company there last time and ought to remain competitive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA109 @ Navan 15/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 109 · 2m Yie 164 · below its mark15/12/2024 · OR 109 par15/12109OR 109C8 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2024 · Pos 15th of 19 · OR 110 · 2m Yie 153 · below its mark26/12/2024 · OR 110 parBHA110 @ Naas 26/01/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 110 · 2m2f150y Sft 157 · below its mark26/01/2025 · OR 110 par26/01110OR 110C8 @ Down Royal 17/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 109 · 2m4f Gd 155 · below its mark17/03/2025 · OR 109 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 107 · 2m4f Yie 163 · below its mark06/04/2025 · OR 107 par6/04C8OR 107C8 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 104 · 2m5f180y Gd 158 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 104 parC8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 104 · 2m4f110y Goo 158 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 104 par26/08C8OR 104C8 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 105 · 2m1f165y Gd 158 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 105 parC8 @ Downpatrick 09/10/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 109 · 2m1f65y Goo 163 · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 109 par9/10C8OR 109projClass-projected finish: 9th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09DownpatrickJack Kennedy?3rd3rd0
2026-09-18DownpatrickJack Kennedy?1st1st0
2026-08-26BellewstownJack Kennedy?2nd2nd0
2026-08-09DownpatrickJack Kennedy?5th5th0
2025-04-06FairyhouseSam Ewing?7th7th0
2025-03-17Down RoyalJ S McGarvey?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1217/0326/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 13-18 · tight 77/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/12/20242nd18/15%92%+0.86
26/12/202415th14/126%22%-0.04
26/01/202511th14/126%23%-0.03
17/03/20254th16/116%57%+0.41
06/04/20257th8/158%33%-0.25
09/08/20265th7/282%33%-0.48
26/08/20262nd13/266%92%+0.27
18/09/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
09/10/20263rd2/189%50%-0.39