10
Malbay Madness
6yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 119
Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | P J O'Hanlon | 1 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | P J O'Hanlon | BHA121 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | P J O'Hanlon | BHA121 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | P J O'Hanlon | BHA114 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Kilbeggan | P J O'Hanlon | BHA108 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Kilbeggan | P J O'Hanlon | BHA108 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 6-18 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 45% | -0.07 |
| 27/10/2025 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 54% | +0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 53% | -0.05 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/09/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |