IvyArcIvyArc
18

Metamorpheus

7yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 107

Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y

#18

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#18

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been in resurgent form for current yard this summer, again finding only one too good after just 2 days off at Cork in early-August. Found run of good form coming to a halt at Listowel the following month but cast that aside with a creditable effort on the Flat 6 days later.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA99 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Yie 155 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 99 par29/0399OR 99BHA51 @ Sligo 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 51 · 1m2f158y Sft 133 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 51 parBHA100 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 100 · 1m7f153y Goo 156 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 100 par15/05100OR 100BHA103 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 103 · 2m1f165y Gd 143 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 103 parBHA55 @ Limerick 11/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m4f65y Gd 137 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 55 par11/0755OR 55BHA103 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 103 · 2m175y Goo 140 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 103 parBHA103 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 103 · 2m1f Goo 153 · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 103 par3/08103OR 103BHA108 @ Listowel 24/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 108 · 2m Goo 164 · below its mark24/09/2026 · OR 108 parBHA54 @ Bellewstown 30/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 54 · 1m4f110y Sft 124 · beat its mark30/09/2026 · OR 54 par30/0954OR 54projClass-projected finish: 6th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30BellewstownAdam Browne-SouzaBHA543rd3rd0
2026-09-24ListowelSean Cleary-FarrellBHA1087th7th0
2026-08-03CorkConor Stone-WalshBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-08-01GalwayConor Stone-WalshBHA1032nd2nd0
2026-07-11LimerickJamie OrrBHA554th4th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickAidan KellyBHA1034th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0314/063/0830/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish17th of 186% of fieldRange 9-18 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -6.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 17th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
03/05/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
15/05/20262nd10/147%92%+0.45
14/06/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
11/07/20264th6/168%73%+0.04
01/08/20262nd12/137%95%+0.58
03/08/20262nd10/382%90%+0.08
24/09/20267th9/276%50%-0.26
30/09/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27