4
Red Glory
8yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 126
Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y
#2
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C11.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Thurles | Adam Grant | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | Darragh O'Keeffe | BHA126 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | Darragh O'Keeffe | BHA124 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Bellewstown | Patrick M O'Brien | BHA122 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | Adam Grant | BHA122 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Galway | Patrick M O'Brien | BHA116 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 18100% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%
Delivery trend +7.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 30/08/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 65% | +0.65 |
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 26/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 84% | +0.68 |
| 08/10/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |