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11

Thornleigh Frank

9yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 119

Down Royal · Kildress Plumbing Handicap Hurdle · 2m 190y

#12

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Shaped quite well on first outing for another new yard after 11 weeks off (previously with Cian Michael Collins) when fourth of 11 in 3m handicap hurdle at Roscommon (good to soft) 33 days ago. Marked drop in trip not sure to suit, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C12.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA94 @ Downpatrick 13/07/2023 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 94 · 2m1f165y Gd 161 · beat its mark13/07/2023 · OR 94 par13/0794OR 94BHA105 @ Kilbeggan 21/07/2023 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 105 · 2m2f Sft 164 · beat its mark21/07/2023 · OR 105 parBHA120 @ Galway 02/08/2023 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 120 · 2m6f111y Goo 164 · beat its mark02/08/2023 · OR 120 par2/08120OR 120BHA124 @ Fairyhouse 22/02/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR 124 · 2m4f Sft 155 · below its mark22/02/2025 · OR 124 parBHA124 @ Fairyhouse 29/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 20 · OR 124 · 2m4f110y Yie 160 · below its mark29/11/2025 · OR 124 par29/11124OR 124BHA123 @ Punchestown 31/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 123 · 2m3f37y Yie 159 · below its mark31/12/2025 · OR 123 parBHA120 @ Ballinrobe 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 120 · 2m6f100y Goo 156 · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 120 par25/05120OR 120BHA120 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 120 · 2m6f180y Goo 158 · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 120 parBHA118 @ Roscommon 28/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 118 · 3m25y Goo 166 · below its mark28/09/2026 · OR 118 par28/09118OR 118projClass-projected finish: 10th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28RoscommonAlan O'SullivanBHA1184th4th0
2026-07-17KillarneyDanny GilliganBHA1208th8th0
2026-05-25BallinrobeDanny GilliganBHA1203rd3rd0
2025-12-31PunchestownConor Stone-WalshBHA1239th9th0
2025-11-29FairyhouseConor Stone-WalshBHA1246th6th0
2025-02-22FairyhouseRicky DoyleBHA1249th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0722/0225/0528/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1835% of fieldRange 6-18 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength27%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/07/20231st10/382%100%+0.18
21/07/20231st11/486%100%+0.14
02/08/20231st7/163%100%+0.37
22/02/20259th20/10%47%+0.47
29/11/20256th28/10%74%+0.74
31/12/20259th22/10%27%+0.27
25/05/20263rd18/15%87%+0.81
17/07/20268th6/168%53%-0.15
28/09/20264th7/163%70%+0.07