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Antrim Coast

8yo Gelding · 12-2 · OR 124

Down Royal · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase · 3m

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up 3 times last summer for Gavin Cromwell but failed to replicate that form in 3 outings for Henry de Bromhead. Fit from the Flat and feather in cap for latest trainer that he could get him back on track when landing a maiden chase 3 weeks ago. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA122 @ Punchestown 08/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 122 · 2m4f55y Goo 152 · below its mark08/06/2025 · OR 122 par8/06122OR 122BHA123 @ Galway 01/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 123 · 2m6f111y Gd 153 · below its mark01/08/2025 · OR 123 parBHA124 @ Killarney 21/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 124 · 2m7f100y Goo 166 · below its mark21/08/2025 · OR 124 par21/08124OR 124BHA124 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 124 · 2m6f Goo 158 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 124 parBHA122 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 122 · 2m3f110y Gd 148 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 122 par3/07122OR 122BHA121 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 12th of 20 · OR 121 · 2m6f111y Goo 147 · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 121 parC8 @ Gowran Park 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m6f Yie 1351/09C8C0 @ Listowel 25/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 1m6f Goo 154BHA121 @ Fairyhouse 10/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 121 · 2m5f55y Goo 166 · beat its mark10/10/2026 · OR 121 par10/10121OR 121projClass-projected finish: 4th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-10FairyhouseDanny MullinsBHA1211st1st0
2026-09-25ListowelMr D G Lavery?10th10th0
2026-09-01Gowran ParkLuke McAteer?3rd3rd0
2026-07-31GalwayDarragh O'KeeffeBHA12112th12th0
2026-07-03WexfordMike O'ConnorBHA1226th6th0
2025-09-27ListowelDarragh O'KeeffeBHA1245th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0627/091/0910/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1593% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
01/08/20252nd11/271%95%+0.24
21/08/20252nd11/1094%75%-0.19
27/09/20255th7/282%56%-0.26
03/07/20266th7/163%44%-0.19
31/07/202612th11/271%42%-0.29
01/09/20263rd33/10%83%+0.83
25/09/202610th33/10%25%+0.25
10/10/20261st6/168%100%+0.32