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5

Brucejack

9yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 114

Down Royal · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase · 3m

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thorough stayer who finally got off the mark in 10-runner handicap chase at Down Royal (3¼m, good to soft) in May. Brushed aside over hurdles on return from a break but should run closer to form this time over the larger obstacles. Mark does look a shade high, though.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA117 @ Punchestown 12/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 117 · 2m6f148y Sft 166 · below its mark12/01/2025 · OR 117 par12/01117OR 117BHA110 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 17 · OR 110 · 2m4f Hvy 166 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 110 par1 @ Fairyhouse 30/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 110 · 3m6f Yie 140 · beat its mark30/11/2025 · OR 110 par30/111OR 1102 @ Haydock 20/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 117 · 3m1f125y Sft 142 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 117 parBHA110 @ Leopardstown 02/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 110 · 3m4f61y Yie 161 · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 110 par2/03110OR 110C8 @ Clonmel 26/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 107 · 2m7f122y Sft 164 · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 107 parBHA107 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 107 · 3m2f50y Goo 154 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 107 par12/04107OR 107BHA114 @ Punchestown 02/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 19 · OR 114 · 3m7f68y Yie 140 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 114 parBHA106 @ Gowran Park 02/10/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 106 · 2m4f40y Gd 152 · below its mark02/10/2026 · OR 106 par2/10106OR 106projClass-projected finish: 6th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Gowran ParkRichard CondonBHA1068th8th0
2026-05-02PunchestownMichael KenneallyBHA1147th7th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalDanny MullinsBHA1071st1st0
2026-03-26ClonmelRichard Condon?5th5th0
2026-03-02LeopardstownRichard CondonBHA1108th8th0
2026-01-11PunchestownDanny MullinsBHA1120

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0120/1212/042/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1550% of fieldRange 4-12 · tight 62/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength51%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/01/20252nd3/184%90%+0.06
08/11/20254th5/174%81%+0.08
30/11/20254th10/147%79%+0.31
20/12/20256th14/126%55%+0.28
02/03/20268th11/142%42%-0.00
26/03/20265th18/15%69%+0.64
12/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
02/05/20267th11/271%67%-0.04
02/10/20268th22/10%46%+0.46