4
Charlie Luciano
7yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 116
Down Royal · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase · 3m
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C11.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Clonmel | Jack Kennedy | BHA117 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-10-10 | Fairyhouse | Sam Ewing | BHA117 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-09-28 | Roscommon | Sam Ewing | BHA113 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Kilbeggan | Donagh Meyler | BHA118 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-21 | Kilbeggan | Mr D McGill | BHA119 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Galway | Conor Stone-Walsh | BHA119 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2024 | 20th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/10/2025 | 12th | 80/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 84% | +0.58 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 28/09/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 10/10/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 22/10/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |