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14

King Gris

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 90

Down Royal · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase · 3m

#15

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#15

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Managed to win a couple of handicap hurdles around 2½m at Ayr and Hexham last season and very much looks to be being brought along with similar intentions over fences, shaping quite well when fourth at Downpatrick 3 weeks ago. 4 lb out of the weights.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength13%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Cartmel 28/05/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 2m1f46y Goo 15628/0545 @ Ayr 01/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 68 · 2m3f110y Hvy 142 · beat its mark01/12/2025 · OR 68 par4 @ Hexham 10/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 68 · 2m4f28y Hvy 142 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 68 par10/124OR 68C8 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 94 · 2m6f Goo 150 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 94 parBHA93 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 93 · 2m5f180y Goo 161 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 93 par8/0593OR 93BHA68 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 68 · 2m3f100y Goo 166 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 68 parC0 @ Curragh 29/08/2026 · Pos 17th of 19 · OR - · 1m4f Yie 17429/08C?BHA68 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 68 · 2m1f165y Gd 166 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 68 parBHA90 @ Downpatrick 09/10/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 90 · 2m7f150y Goo 158 · below its mark09/10/2026 · OR 90 par9/1090OR 90projClass-projected finish: 11th of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-09DownpatrickPaddy ClearyBHA904th4th0
2026-09-18DownpatrickSam EwingBHA6810th10th0
2026-08-29CurraghJane O'Sullivan?17th17th0
2026-05-22DownpatrickJosh WilliamsonBHA687th7th0
2026-05-08DownpatrickSam EwingBHA935th5th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalJack Kennedy?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0512/0429/089/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1521% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength74%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 15. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20259th250/10%11%+0.11
01/12/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
10/12/20251st4/1198%100%+0.02
12/04/20265th7/282%56%-0.26
08/05/20265th12/137%71%+0.35
22/05/20267th9/153%54%+0.01
29/08/202617th125/10%11%+0.11
18/09/202610th20/10%18%+0.18
09/10/20264th16/116%77%+0.61