IvyArcIvyArc
11

Ladies Well

6yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 107

Down Royal · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase · 3m

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has taken well to chasing this season, winning 23f handicaps at Killarney in July and August before finding another jolt of improvement for latest success at Roscommon a month ago, Hard to omit from calculations in current mood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C9.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA84 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 84 · 2m6f Goo 152 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 84 par26/0984OR 84BHA84 @ Thurles 16/10/2025 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 84 · 2m6f154y Goo 152 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 84 parBHA83 @ Down Royal 31/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 83 · 3m30y Goo 151 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 83 par31/1083OR 835 @ Kelso 24/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 90 · 2m7f96y Gd 159 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 90 parBHA81 @ Killarney 17/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 81 · 2m7f Goo 149 · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 81 par17/0781OR 81BHA89 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 89 · 2m5f141y Sft 162 · below its mark04/08/2026 · OR 89 parBHA90 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 90 · 2m7f100y Goo 158 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 90 par20/0890OR 90BHA98 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 98 · 2m7f67y Yie 166 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 98 parBHA98 @ Roscommon 28/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 98 · 2m5f131y Yie 148 · beat its mark28/09/2026 · OR 98 par28/0998OR 98projClass-projected finish: 1st of 15
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-28RoscommonCian QuirkeBHA981st1st0
2026-09-11BallinrobeAlan O'SullivanBHA984th4th0
2026-08-20KillarneyDarragh O'KeeffeBHA901st1st0
2026-08-04RoscommonDarragh O'KeeffeBHA892nd2nd0
2026-07-17KillarneyCian QuirkeBHA811st1st0
2026-06-15KilbegganPhilip DonovanBHA810

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0924/0520/0828/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20256th7/163%67%+0.04
16/10/202512th8/158%35%-0.23
31/10/20258th28/10%63%+0.63
24/05/20262nd7/163%75%+0.12
17/07/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
04/08/20262nd10/382%92%+0.09
20/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
11/09/20264th3/184%80%-0.04
28/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18