15
Shantou Show
10yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 90
Down Royal · Start Your Racing TV Free Trial Now Handicap Chase · 3m
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Downpatrick | Erin Dunseath | BHA93 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Downpatrick | Erin Dunseath | BHA95 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | P W Wadge | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | Conor Stone-Walsh | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | Mr D McGill | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | Carl Millar | BHA99 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 157% of fieldRange 6-15 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength15%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 09/10/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 62% | +0.19 |