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Affordale Fury

8yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 167

Down Royal · BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1) · 3m

#3

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

17%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive novice hurdler a couple of seasons back (runner-up in the Albert Bartlett) and produced a big career best in this sphere when taking the Grade 1 Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Subsequent run can be excused (lame) and he's a definite contender on his peak form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 2.2)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Cheltenham 17/03/2023 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR - · 2m7f213y Sft 16117/0311 @ Punchestown 26/04/2023 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 142 · 2m7f180y Yie 164 · below its mark26/04/2023 · OR 142 parC0 @ Galway 29/10/2023 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 2m6f111y Hvy 16629/10C?1 @ Punchestown 25/11/2023 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 3m Sft 157BHA145 @ Fairyhouse 05/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 145 · 3m110y Sft 163 · below its mark05/02/2025 · OR 145 par5/02145OR 1451 @ Gowran Park 04/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 147 · 2m4f Yie 157 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 147 par1 @ Down Royal 01/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 150 · 3m Goo 164 · below its mark01/11/2025 · OR 150 par1/111OR 1501 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 157 · 2m6f Goo 154 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 157 par1 @ Leopardstown 28/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 157 · 3m100y Yie 164 · beat its mark28/12/2025 · OR 157 par28/121OR 157projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-02LeopardstownDonagh Meyler10
2025-12-28LeopardstownSam Ewing11st1st0
2025-11-27ThurlesDonagh Meyler11st2nd−1
2025-11-01Down RoyalDonagh Meyler12nd2nd0
2025-10-04Gowran ParkDonagh Meyler12nd2nd−0
2025-02-05FairyhouseDonagh MeylerBHA1452nd19th−14

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0325/111/1128/12
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20232nd150/10%95%+0.95
26/04/20232nd6/168%88%+0.19
29/10/20231st4/696%100%+0.04
25/11/20235th9/488%33%-0.55
05/02/20252nd2/189%75%-0.14
04/10/20252nd3/184%75%-0.09
01/11/20252nd9/276%75%-0.01
27/11/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
28/12/20251st7/163%100%+0.37