3
Croke Park
8yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 146
Down Royal · BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1) · 3m
#7
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Jockey | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Punchestown | Jack Kennedy | 1 | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | Danny Gilligan | 1 | 18th | 19th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Leopardstown | Josh Williamson | 1 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-01-01 | Tramore | Jordan Gainford | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Down Royal | Danny Gilligan | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | Jack Kennedy | 1 | 3rd | 4th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 5-7 · tight 76/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/02/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 03/04/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 01/02/2026 | 13th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 18th | 25/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 14/10/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |