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6

Heart Wood

8yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 166

Down Royal · BetVictor, Remembering Envoi Allen Champion Chase (Grade 1) · 3m

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

28%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Enjoyed a fine 2024/25, the highlight of his 3 wins being the Ryanair Chase in March. That big effort perhaps left a mark given he wasn't in the same form 4 weeks on in the Melling Chase. Back up in trip and no surprise were a break to have done him good.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Wexford 28/10/2024 · Pos 1st of 3 · OR 151 · 2m7f Sft 149 · beat its mark28/10/2024 · OR 151 par28/101OR 1511 @ Fairyhouse 01/12/2024 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 155 · 2m4f Yie 164 · below its mark01/12/2024 · OR 155 par1 @ Leopardstown 28/12/2024 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 154 · 3m100y Goo 164 · below its mark28/12/2024 · OR 154 par28/121OR 1541 @ Cheltenham 13/03/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 159 · 2m4f127y GS 164 · below its mark13/03/2025 · OR 159 par1 @ Punchestown 15/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 160 · 2m7f39y Goo 154 · beat its mark15/10/2025 · OR 160 par15/101OR 1601 @ Punchestown 23/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 160 · 2m3f150y Sft 166 · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 160 par1 @ Tramore 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 160 · 2m6f170y Sft 160 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 160 par1/011OR 1601 @ Cheltenham 12/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 160 · 2m4f127y Goo 164 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 160 par1 @ Aintree 10/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 168 · 2m3f200y Goo 164 · below its mark10/04/2026 · OR 168 par10/041OR 168projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-10AintreeDarragh O'Keeffe13rd3rd0
2026-03-12CheltenhamDarragh O'Keeffe11st1st0
2026-01-01TramoreDarragh O'Keeffe11st2nd−0
2025-11-23PunchestownDarragh O'Keeffe14th4th0
2025-10-15PunchestownDarragh O'Keeffe11st2nd−0
2025-04-21FairyhouseRachael Blackmore1−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1013/031/0110/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength91%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20241st8/1397%100%+0.03
01/12/20242nd2/189%75%-0.14
28/12/20244th18/15%63%+0.57
13/03/20252nd18/15%88%+0.82
15/10/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
23/11/20254th10/147%67%+0.19
01/01/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
12/03/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/04/20263rd6/594%67%-0.27