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5

Break My Soul

7yo Mare · 10-11 · OR 137

Down Royal · Racing Post Chase (Grade 2) · 2m 3f 100y

#4

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful novice chaser last season. Cheekpieces on first time (off now), bit below par when 11 lengths second in listed mares hurdle when last seen in May. Can be competitive if close to her best back from break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Gowran Park 15/02/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 129 · 2m Sft 152 · below its mark15/02/2025 · OR 129 par15/021OR 1291 @ Aintree 03/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 137 · 2m4f Goo 157 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/04/2025 · OR 137 par1 @ Punchestown 02/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 140 · 2m45y Yie 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/05/2025 · OR 140 par2/051OR 140C0 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m Hvy 1611 @ Cork 07/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m200y Sft 1537/1211 @ Leopardstown 26/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 133 · 2m1f Yie 159 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 133 parC8 @ Punchestown 15/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR 132 · 2m108y Hvy 163 · below its mark15/02/2026 · OR 132 par15/02C8OR 1321 @ Cheltenham 11/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 136 · 1m7f199y Gd 149 · below its mark11/03/2026 · OR 136 par1 @ Killarney 09/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 137 · 2m1f Goo 154 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 137 par9/051OR 137projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseJockeyClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-09KillarneyKeith Donoghue12nd3rd−0
2026-04-05FairyhouseKeith Donoghue1−1
2026-03-11CheltenhamConor Stone-Walsh13rd4th−1
2026-02-15PunchestownKeith Donoghue?2nd11th−7
2025-12-26LeopardstownKeith Donoghue17th8th−1
2025-12-07CorkSam Ewing14th5th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/028/1115/029/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/02/20252nd14/126%80%+0.54
03/04/20254th125/10%40%+0.40
02/05/20254th125/10%40%+0.40
08/11/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
07/12/20254th9/276%57%-0.19
26/12/20257th50/10%25%+0.25
15/02/20262nd11/486%67%-0.19
11/03/20263rd20/10%89%+0.89
09/05/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02